The table shows the movement of the S&P 500 following select geopolitical/military events. Unless the wartime event coincided with a recession, the market rebounded 75% of the time within a year.
After 12 months the S&P 500 is positive for 75% of the selected geopolitical/military events and, despite three negative years, averaged an 8.6% return according to FactSet. The three instances that were not positive after 12 months were followed by a recession. So, while there is uncertainty in the initial months following a geopolitical or military event, the market has generally moved upward.
What does this mean for the current Russia-Ukraine conflict? While the market has been volatile to start the year, we continue to monitor the events of the conflict as they unfold. If the US stock market follows the trends of past events, we hope to see a market rebound.